The nation is reeling from the shocking assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 14th. The brazen attack, carried out by a lone gunman identified as 20-year-old Matthew Crooks, left Trump with a bullet graze to his right ear and resulted in one bystander fatality and two critical injuries before the shooter was neutralized by the Secret Service.[1]
In the immediate aftermath, an outpouring of bipartisan condemnation and calls for unity have emerged from across the political spectrum. Democratic leaders like President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries all expressed horror at the shooting and relief that Trump was not seriously harmed.[2][3] Even some of Trump's harshest critics, like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, issued statements of sympathy devoid of political attacks.[9]
This rare moment of shared outrage and coming together after a politically-motivated act of violence has led some to hope that the shooting could serve as a much-needed circuit breaker in America's overheated and dangerously divided political environment. "We should all be relieved that former President Trump wasn't seriously hurt, and use this moment to recommit ourselves to civility and respect in our politics," former President Barack Obama said in a statement.[9]
However, while the assassination attempt may provide a temporary sense of national unity and a reprieve from the incessant partisan rancor, it is unlikely on its own to heal the deep fissures in American society that have been widening for decades. A closer look at the factors driving political polarization suggests that the country remains as divided as ever beneath the surface. Bridging those stark differences will require sustained efforts to address root causes, not just a momentary pause after a shocking tragedy.
America's Long Road to Polarization
Political scientists have been warning about the steady rise of affective polarization in the United States since well before Donald Trump burst onto the political scene. Affective polarization refers to the extent to which citizens feel more negatively toward other political parties than toward their own.[6]
One study found that in 1978, the average American rated the members of their own political party 27 points higher than members of the other major party on a "feeling thermometer" scale. By 2016, that gap had increased to 45.9 points. In other words, negative feelings toward the opposition party relative to one's own have been growing by nearly 5 points per decade.[7]
Alarmingly, this polarization has risen more sharply in the U.S. over the past 40 years than in many other developed democracies like the U.K., Australia, and Germany.[7] So what's driving Americans further apart? Political scientists point to a confluence of long-term factors:
Ideological and demographic sorting of the parties - Since the 1970s, the two major parties have grown more ideologically and demographically distinct. Liberals have become concentrated in the Democratic Party while conservatives dominate the GOP.[4] The Democratic coalition is increasingly diverse, urban, secular, and highly educated, while Republicans are more homogeneously white, rural, religious, and non-college educated.[5] So partisans on each side now see the opposition as more different and distant from them.
The political primary system - The current primary system, where candidates compete to appeal to their party's base voters, tends to reward politicians who take more ideologically extreme positions. This pulls both parties further away from the center and incentivizes vilifying the other side.[4]
Partisan media echo chambers - The rise of overtly partisan media outlets on radio, cable TV, and online has allowed Americans to increasingly consume only news and commentary that confirms their existing beliefs. Exposure to opposing views has decreased. One study found that partisan media makes viewers more likely to ascribe negative traits to members of the other party.[6]
Geographic sorting - Just as the parties have sorted ideologically, Americans have also been sorting themselves geographically into like-minded communities. Democrats now cluster in urban areas while Republicans dominate rural ones.[4] This reduces opportunities for cross-party contact and understanding.
Negative partisanship - More and more, Americans are motivated politically not by affinity to their own party, but by opposition to the other side, which they see as a threat. Anger and fear directed at the opposing party's agenda increasingly drive voter behavior.[4]
All of these factors have been brewing for decades, fueling a self-reinforcing cycle of polarization and weakening the norms of restraint, compromise, and mutual toleration that are essential for a healthy democracy. It's this larger context into which Donald Trump stepped as a uniquely divisive and norm-shattering political figure.
The Trump Effect
There's no question that Donald Trump's ascent to the presidency both revealed and intensified the depth of America's divisions. His brash, combative style, his willingness to attack democratic institutions and stoke racial resentment, and his disregard for truth and civility blew away the already-eroding guardrails on acceptable political behavior.
As president, Trump frequently demonized his opponents as dangerous radicals and enemies of the state. He described journalists as "the enemy of the people."[5] He told minority congresswomen to "go back" to other countries.[5] He winked at political violence, telling a rally crowd that he'd pay their legal fees if they punched a protester.[5]
So in many ways, Trump took advantage of and poured gasoline on the polarized tinderbox of American politics. His words and actions made it easier for people to see their political opponents as not just wrong, but illegitimate and threatening. Polls show that by the end of his term, 9 in 10 Republicans believed the Democratic Party had been taken over by socialists, while 8 in 10 Democrats saw the GOP as controlled by racists.[4]
However, while Trump certainly contributed to worsening polarization, it's overly simplistic to cast him as the primary cause rather than a symptom and accelerant of divisions that long predated him. As the political scientist Lilliana Mason has written, Trump is "not the creator of this new state of American politics; he is its creature."[4]
The evidence bears this out. Political scientists have not found a clear, durable "Trump effect" in the polarization data. Affective polarization actually rose more slowly during Trump's presidency than in the decades before.[4] And the U.S. remains an outlier in polarization compared to other countries that haven't experienced a Trump-like figure.[7]
So while Trump worsened division and rancor in American politics, he was working with already-fertile ground tilled by the long-term trends of ideological, geographic, and media self-sorting. Removing Trump from the scene, whether by electoral defeat or even assassination, doesn't reverse those underlying currents.
No Easy Answers
This is the daunting reality that Americans must grapple with in the aftermath of the Pennsylvania shooting. The attack was a horrific act of political violence that merits unequivocal condemnation from across the political spectrum. The moments of shared outrage and reflection it has provoked are valuable.
But it would be naive to expect a single traumatic event, even an assassination attempt on a former president, to magically heal such deep-seated divisions. The factors fueling America's polarization are complex, structural, and decades in the making. Reversing them will require concerted efforts on multiple fronts over many years.
Political institutions will need to be reformed to incentivize moderation and compromise rather than zero-sum conflict. Changing the primary system, for instance, could help more centrist candidates win nominations.[4] Reducing the role of partisan gerrymandering could lead to more competitive districts and less ideologically homogeneous representation.[6]
The media ecosystem will need to promote a more shared baseline of facts, while news consumers will need to venture more outside of their ideological comfort zones. Restoring trust in journalism as an impartial referee is vital. At the same time, citizens need to improve their media literacy and break out of self-reinforcing information bubbles.[6]
Perhaps most importantly, Americans will need to rediscover how to forge personal connections across party lines. As long as partisans see each other more as caricatures than as full human beings, empathy and compromise will remain elusive. Organizations dedicated to facilitating real-world cross-partisan dialogue, relationships, and collaboration need much more support and attention.[4]
None of this will be easy in a country as vast and diverse as the United States. The wounds of polarization run deep, and they've been salted by the divisive and transgressive Trump era. But the work of rebuilding a healthier democracy must continue, one hard conversation and one outstretched hand at a time.
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump has provided a sobering reminder of where our divisions can lead if left unchecked. Let's not waste the opportunity for reflection it has offered. At the same time, let's be clear-eyed that bridging America's political chasm will be the work of a generation, not a moment. True national unity and healing can't be achieved by a shared spasm of sympathy, but by the sustained, painstaking mending of our tattered social fabric.
Citations: [1] https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/trump-rally-assassination-attempt-july-14 [2] https://apnews.com/live/election-biden-trump-campaign-updates-07-13-2024 [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-fret-political-fallout-trump-rally-shooting-rcna161789 [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reactions-shooting-trump-rally-pennsylvania-2024-07-14/ [5] https://www.nbcboston.com/news/politics/at-issue/analysis-political-experts-on-the-impact-of-the-trump-assassination-attempt/3426576/ [6] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-tech-platforms-fuel-u-s-political-polarization-and-what-government-can-do-about-it/ [7] https://www.brown.edu/news/2020-01-21/polarization [8] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/donald-trump-rally-shooting-assassination-attempt/?id=111916828 [9] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/13/dems-trump-rally-shooting-00167985 [10] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/09/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-the-united-states-what-the-research-says?lang=en