As the United States looks ahead to the 2024 presidential election, there are growing concerns that the nation could be on the brink of a period of heightened political violence and instability, echoing the tumultuous "Years of Lead" (Anni di piombo) that shook Italy from the late 1960s to the early 1980s. With the country still reeling from the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, and deep partisan divisions showing no signs of abating, the risk of widespread unrest and even domestic terrorism looms large over the upcoming election season.
In this blog post, we'll take a closer look at the parallels between the current political climate in the U.S. and the conditions that gave rise to Italy's Years of Lead, examine the key risk factors that could contribute to a similar outbreak of violence in America, and consider what steps can be taken to avert such a dangerous and destabilizing outcome.
Italy's "Years of Lead": A Cautionary Tale
To understand the potential risks facing the U.S. in 2024, it's instructive to look back at Italy's experience during the Years of Lead. This period of social and political turmoil, which lasted from roughly 1968 to 1982, was marked by a wave of far-left and far-right terrorism that left hundreds dead and thousands injured.
The roots of the crisis can be traced back to the late 1960s, when Italy was in the midst of a post-war economic boom that brought rapid industrialization and urbanization, but also exacerbated social inequalities and class divisions. Mass migration to cities, coupled with the rise of radical ideologies on both ends of the political spectrum, created a volatile mix that erupted into strikes, protests, and violent clashes with police.
The Years of Lead began in earnest with a series of high-profile incidents in 1969, including the death of a policeman during a riot in Milan, the Piazza Fontana bombing that killed 17 people, and the suspicious death of an anarchist in police custody who was initially blamed for the attack. These events set the stage for a decade of escalating violence, as far-left groups like the Red Brigades and far-right neo-fascist organizations carried out bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings in pursuit of their respective political agendas.
One of the most shocking episodes of the period came in 1978, when the Red Brigades kidnapped and killed former Prime Minister Aldo Moro, after putting him on "trial" for his alleged crimes against the working class. Other major attacks included the bombing of the Bologna train station in 1980 by a far-right group, which claimed 85 lives, and the Piazza della Loggia bombing in Brescia in 1974.
Terrorist activity reached its peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s, before gradually declining as Italian authorities cracked down on the extremist groups, arresting many of their members. The kidnapping of U.S. General James Dozier by the Red Brigades in 1981 was one of the last major actions of the period, as the group began to fade away in the face of intense pressure from law enforcement.
The human toll of the Years of Lead was staggering, with hundreds killed and around 2,000 injured in what became one of the most violent periods of domestic terrorism experienced by a Western democracy. But the impact of the crisis went far beyond the immediate casualties. The Years of Lead left deep scars on the Italian psyche that have yet to fully heal, and the legacy of that era continues to shape the country's politics and society to this day.
Warning Signs for America in 2024
Fast forward to the present day, and there are worrying signs that the U.S. could be heading down a similar path as it approaches the 2024 presidential election. While the specific context and circumstances are different, many of the same underlying risk factors that contributed to Italy's Years of Lead are also present in America today.
Perhaps the most obvious parallel is the deep partisan polarization that has gripped the country in recent years. The U.S. is more divided along ideological lines than at any point in recent memory, with supporters of the two major parties increasingly living in separate realities, consuming different media, and holding fundamentally incompatible views on a range of issues from the economy to social justice to the very nature of American democracy.
These divisions have only been exacerbated by the unresolved disputes over the legitimacy of the 2020 election, with a significant portion of the Republican base still believing that the election was stolen from President Trump, despite no evidence to support these claims. The prospect of a rematch between President Biden and Trump in 2024, in what would undoubtedly be a bitterly contested race, threatens to further inflame these tensions and increase the risk of political violence.
The recent assassination attempt against former President Trump is perhaps the most alarming sign yet of the potential for election-related unrest. While the details of the incident are still emerging, it underscores the fact that there are individuals and groups in the U.S. who are willing to resort to violence to advance their political agenda. The attack has already become a rallying cry for some on the far-right, who see it as proof of a larger conspiracy against conservatives, and there are concerns that it could inspire copycat attacks or retaliation from the other side.
Another key risk factor is the growing threat of domestic terrorism, particularly from far-right extremist groups. In recent years, the U.S. has seen a surge in activity from white supremacist and anti-government organizations, many of which have been emboldened by the rhetoric of former President Trump and other conservative leaders. These groups have already demonstrated their willingness to engage in violence, as seen in incidents like the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017 and the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
There are also concerns about the potential for far-left extremism, particularly in response to perceived injustices or government overreach. While left-wing terrorism has been less prevalent in the U.S. in recent years compared to right-wing violence, there are still radical groups and individuals who could pose a threat, particularly if they feel that peaceful protest and civil disobedience are no longer effective means of achieving their goals.
Beyond the immediate risk of violence, a prolonged period of political instability could also have severe economic consequences for the U.S. Widespread unrest and uncertainty could deter foreign investment, disrupt trade and supply chains, and undermine confidence in American political institutions and the rule of law. Even the mere risk of election-related violence could be enough to rattle financial markets and slow economic growth.
Averting a Crisis
Despite these risks, it's important to note that the U.S. is not necessarily doomed to follow in Italy's footsteps. America has a long history of peaceful transfers of power and strong democratic norms and institutions that have helped it weather previous periods of turmoil and division. The country also has a robust law enforcement and national security apparatus that is well-equipped to deal with domestic terror threats, as well as a free press and civil society that can help hold those in power accountable.
However, averting a Years of Lead scenario in the U.S. will require a concerted effort from political leaders, security services, and ordinary citizens alike. Some key steps that could help mitigate the risk of election-related violence include:
- Lowering the temperature: Political leaders on both sides of the aisle need to take responsibility for lowering the rhetorical temperature and avoiding language that could incite violence or undermine faith in democratic institutions. This means rejecting conspiracy theories, respecting the outcome of free and fair elections, and condemning political violence in all its forms.
- Securing the election infrastructure: Federal, state, and local authorities need to work together to ensure the security and integrity of the 2024 election, including protecting against cyber threats, misinformation campaigns, and physical attacks on polling places and election workers. This may require additional funding, resources, and coordination between different levels of government.
- Combating domestic extremism: Law enforcement and intelligence agencies need to prioritize the threat of domestic terrorism and devote sufficient resources to monitoring and disrupting extremist groups that may seek to influence or disrupt the electoral process. This includes cracking down on illegal weapons, online radicalization, and other enablers of political violence.
- Promoting dialogue and understanding: Civil society groups, media organizations, and ordinary citizens can play a role in bridging the partisan divide and promoting greater understanding and empathy across political lines. This could include initiatives like community dialogues, fact-checking efforts, and programs to combat online misinformation and hate speech.
- Preparing for the worst: While hoping for the best, government agencies, businesses, and individuals need to be prepared for the possibility of significant unrest or violence around the 2024 election. This may include developing contingency plans, stockpiling essential supplies, and staying informed about potential threats in their area.
Conclusion
The specter of a Years of Lead scenario in the U.S. is a sobering reminder of the fragility of even the most established democracies. While America's institutions and traditions are strong, they are not invulnerable to the forces of division, extremism, and violence that have torn other societies apart.
Ultimately, the fate of the 2024 election and the stability of the country as a whole will depend on the choices and actions of those in positions of power and influence. If political leaders continue to stoke the flames of partisan rancor and resentment, if law enforcement fails to take the threat of domestic terrorism seriously, and if ordinary citizens retreat into their respective echo chambers and lose faith in the democratic process, then the risk of a crisis on the scale of Italy's Years of Lead will only grow.
On the other hand, if Americans can come together to reaffirm their commitment to peaceful, democratic change, to reject extremism and violence in all its forms, and to work towards a more just, equitable, and united society, then the country may yet emerge from this challenging period stronger and more resilient than ever.
The path forward will not be easy, and there will undoubtedly be setbacks and obstacles along the way. But as the saying goes, "eternal vigilance is the price of liberty." By staying informed, engaged, and committed to the values and institutions that have sustained American democracy for more than two centuries, citizens can help ensure that the 2024 election is remembered not as the start of a new era of violence and division, but as a turning point towards a brighter, more hopeful future for all.
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